Accumulate UltraTech Cement; target of Rs 7643: Dolat Capital Market

Dolat Capital Market recommended accumulate rating on UltraTech Cement with a target price of Rs 7643 in its research report dated January 23, 2023.

Broker Research

January 25, 2023 / 05:23 PM IST

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Dolat Capital Market's research report on UltraTech Cement

UTCEM reported revenue and volume in line, however realization/tn, EBITDA, EBITDA/tn and APAT below estimates. UTCEM posted +19.5% YoY growth in revenue to Rs155.2 bn led by +11.8% YoY in volume to 25.9 mt (+11.9% QoQ) coupled with +6.9% YoY in realization/tn to Rs6,002 (-0.2% QoQ). EBITDA/ APAT down by 3.5%/ 9.7% YoY to Rs23.4 bn/ Rs10.6 bn due to higher opex. We broadly maintain our revenue estimates for FY23E/ FY24E/ FY25E. However, we decrease our EBITDA estimates by 7.8%/ 4.8%/ 6.0% for FY23E/ FY24E/ FY25E factoring 9MFY23. Accordingly, we decrease our APAT estimates by 11.1%/ 6.6%/ 7.8% for FY23E/ FY24E/ FY25E. We expect 12.1%/ 8.6%/ 12.0% Revenue/ EBITDA/ APAT CAGR over FY22-25E led by 9.8%/ 10.1%/ 8.4% volume growth and 7.6%/ 0.0%/ 0.0% realization growth in FY23E/ FY24E/ FY25E.

Outlook

UTCEM, being the largest player in Indian cement industry is its biggest advantage. However, CMP leaves limited upside, thus we downgrade to Accumulate with a revised TP of Rs7,643 based on 15x consolidated FY25E EV/EBITDA.